A pretty good round for the model, with only one game being picked incorrectly (England vs. Australia), 5 to within 7 points and 3 correct winners but wrong margin. Interestingly, we are seeing a couple of teams – England, Samoa are the two main examples – who appear to be under-performing when compared to recent results (and thus their rankings), and a couple of teams such as Japan and Australia who seem to be over-performing. This highlights one of the difficulties with this type of modelling – how do you account for form (let alone what is form – and is it simply “meaning” given to short term random variation) and squad development. Any model based on history will only pick-up rapid rating changes after the fact – and this is what we may be seeing here.
In any case, the results from round 3 are as follows: